The world of swimming is undergoing a significant transformation, with a multitude of changes taking place within a short span of time. From the introduction of semifinals in USA Swimming's Pro Swim Series to the emergence of the Enhanced Games and alternative league models, the sport is evolving rapidly. Among these changes, one that will have an immediate impact is the revised format for the 2026 NCAA championships. A notable alteration is the elimination of the B-Final, which has sparked a debate among swimming enthusiasts and athletes alike.
The B-Final has traditionally been a platform for swimmers ranked 9-16 to compete and earn points for their teams. However, under the new format, these swimmers will no longer get a second swim in the evening, and their points will be assigned based on their preliminary rankings. This change has divided opinions, with proponents arguing for a better spectator experience and critics emphasizing the loss of an opportunity for athletes to showcase their skills.
Missy Franklin, a renowned swimmer, expressed her heartbreak for athletes who would miss out on the B-Final experience. She believes that making a final, whether A or B, is an exciting achievement and a chance to contribute to the team's success. On the other hand, Caeleb Dressel takes a different stance, questioning the need for a B-Final altogether. He argues that the focus should be on the top swimmers competing for the best in the country.
So, what does the data say about the impact of B-Finals on team outcomes? An analysis of historical data from SwimSwam's Results Archive reveals some interesting insights. Across all teams and years, the majority of teams experience minimal shifts in their rankings, with an average change of just over one spot. This suggests that for most programs, the new system won't drastically alter their position on the scoreboard.
However, there are notable outliers, with some teams experiencing significant drops or improvements in their rankings. For instance, Miami (Ohio)'s women's team in 2024 saw a 9-place improvement under the old system, primarily due to the performance of their sole swimmer, Nicole Maier. Her B-Final swim in the 400 IM earned her team valuable points, highlighting the value of B-Finals in providing opportunities for athletes to step up.
When focusing on the top teams, the variation in rankings becomes even more minimal. Among the top 10 teams, the average change in rank is just over a quarter of a place, with the largest improvement and drop being only two places. This consistency in rankings among the elite teams suggests that the new format won't significantly impact the race for the top spots.
One exceptional case is the 2018 Men's Indiana team, which improved by two places from third to first. This was a closely contested championship, with Texas, Cal, and Indiana separated by a mere 27 points. Small drops and improvements in individual performances led to a swap in rankings, showcasing how a unique combination of results can create an intriguing narrative.
Statistical analysis further supports the marginal impact of the new format. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, which measures the alignment of team rankings between the two scoring methods, consistently yields high values, with an average of 0.991. This indicates that the two systems produce nearly identical team rankings, and the correlation is stable across years and genders.
While the data suggests that B-Finals have a limited impact on scoring outcomes, the broader conversation extends beyond team rankings. The value of B-Finals for athletes and their teams, the potential for momentum swings, and the improvement in the spectator experience are all factors to consider. The removal of B-Finals may enhance the viewing experience for casual fans and boost broadcast numbers, but these effects remain to be seen.
As we head into the 2026 NCAA championships, we'll get a glimpse of how this small change on paper translates into practice. The swimming community eagerly awaits the first real-world test of this revised format, which will provide valuable insights into the impact on the sport and its athletes.
